Nostradouglas' 🔮 Fall Predictions
We’ve hit September, which means the colors are about to start changing and I don’t just mean the leaves. For craft breweries with competitive seasonal SKUs, the Oktoberfest and Pumpkin battles for floor space have been happening since mid-July. As far as news though, Fall is not when big box stores tend to allow major sweeping changes to their shelf sets, only small tweaks here and there. So expect the larger breweries to be fairly quiet until press releases start coming out for early 2024 branches launches. The industry’s long tail has more flexibility though, and now is their time to let those darker hues shine. Join Nostradouglas, my soothsaying alter ego, as he looks into his crystal ball and previews some very short term predictions as we head into the most glorious season to be a craft beer fan.
🔮 Black IPAddition by Subtraction
While the Black IPA may have peaked around 2012, its eventual market crash rivaled that of rug-pull crypto token nearly wiping it off the face of the earth. But everything cycles back, even crypto, and COVID brought a bit of an overcorrection to the Cascadian Dark Ale (as nerds call them) market with Stone Brewing, Firestone, Allagash, and Bell’s among many others each bringing theirs back and/or taking them fairly wide.
By the second Fall of COVID, the sales limitations of this eccentric style were rediscovered and we began seeing less and less. Now in 2023, we’ve reached an equilibrium state where the breweries who truly love Black IPAs will still release theirs as a limited release or seasonal worth looking forward to. Those who chased to avoid FOMO will no longer bother as the Black IPA remains a delicious niche whose best chance of continued relevance is to stay small, stay limited, and stay seasonal. Nostradouglas predicts that Black IPAs will be harder to find than 2020-2022 this Fall, but still much more prevalent than 2015-2019.
🔮 Czech Raise
A lager sounds great and all, but a Czech Lager? That sounds exhilarating. Or so the usage over the last few years seems to imply. “Czech” has become a quality stamp of sorts, despite not always being earned. Many theorize that the more words that a style name has, the more intention is implied, and the better it sells 🤷♂️. Czech Dark Lagers (CDLs) specifically are just so dang likable that we all happily look past these marketing quirks.
The style provides a perfect transition for breweries looking to rotate lagers with the seasons, especially once the namesake Oktoberfest hits its November 1st brick wall and darkness begins to reign. The presence of a smoother, chocolate character instead of the roastiness often present in Porters, Black IPAs, and Schwarzbiers give CDLs a wider reach and more potential. Nostradouglas expects to see more this Fall than ever seen before, but you’ll have to hit your local bottle shops, not the grocery stores to find these small batch beauties.
🔮 Barrel Aged Restraint
During the Fall of 2020, barrel-aged beer had a lot of headwinds including 1) money in consumer’s pockets, 2) exponentially more drink-at-home occasions, and 3) rallying cries to support local breweries. Breweries may have misread these sales as indicators for 2021 and especially 2022’s potential. On top of a weak last year for many barrel programs, Nostradouglas warns that depressing “cellars”, declining spending power, greater restraint, and an aging core consumer will have many breweries exhibiting more conservative strategies with their barrel programs. While you may still see the same number of releases, smaller volumes will be pushed out as bottle shops push back and become more selective of what they feel they can move.
🔮 “Spiked” Partnerships on the Local Level
There have been a number of cross-segment brand collaborations over the years. Locally we’ve had Noon Whistle’s Mr Peanut beer, Phase Three’s Affy Tapple, Half Acre’s Morton Salt Gose, Hop Butcher’s [Frango] Minted, and our Garrett Popcorn Caramel Popcorn Ale at Revolution. These are typically designed to be a limited release or seasonal, as way to engage a broader fanbase.
We’ve also seen just about every CPG brand imaginable partner with a beverage company in the last two years to make a “spiked” or “hard” version, but as a year-round play. Most are looking around saying, should I be doing this too? While these ventures are not really options for craft beer’s long tail of small breweries, Nostradouglas senses a big wave of new collaborations that extend well outside alcohol, more like the Chicago ones mentioned above and on a hyper local level. Think donut shop chains, popular bakeries, iconic chocolate & candy companies, and well beyond. While there are exceptions, a lot of the most compelling possibilities will lean darker and/or sweet, so Fall is the perfect occasion with Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas to build occasions around.
🔮 More Deals Will Be Had 🤝
The M&A scene has been active all year, but the economic conditions do not make it a friendly time for borrowers with interest rates off the charts. Those who are cash rich and looking to play the long game however are in a ripe position to pick off breweries or brands who are ready to tap out. Nostradouglas expects to see a fury of acquisitions to close out the year, some more unexpected than others, at very buyer-friendly prices with unique structures to facilitate a deal getting done.
These predictions are intentionally leaning toward the immediate term, with Fall being just 21 days away, but know that Nostradouglas is hard at work in the outer cosmos, looking deep into the stars for his big 2024 Preview & Predictions coming late this year 🔮 .
Nice article Doug. I can honestly say I’ve never had a Dark IPA before, at least to my knowledge. This is something I’ll look for this Fall after I’ve recovered from OD’ing on Marzen. Regarding the BAB’s I think it’s a product that will always have plenty of hype behind it and a strong following from those fans. One brewery who makes wonderful BAB’s is Brothership in Mokena. Their Space Debris line is amazing.
Great read as always. Long gone are those halcyon days of my youth when any and every barrel aged beer on a shelf was a must-buy, and the Goose really appeared to be cooked last year as the retail chains they've snugged up to were seen heavily discounting BCBS variants. Of course, adding a nickel's worth of adjuncts and doubling the price per bottle was only going to be a viable strategy for so long....