NOSTRAD🔮UGLAS' 2025 Preview & Predictions Part 1: Dry Season

After a time-traveling adventure through the future, Nostradouglas has returned to Beer Crunchers with fresh takes on what the beer industry has in store for 2025, and beyond. With Dry January a wrap, Doug’s alter ego will begin by sharing observations and insights on the continuing rise of non-alcoholic (NA) beer, followed by other emerging trends that are shaping the industry. While the past has been a bit hazy, Nostradouglas is here to provide some much needed clarity around the future of beer.

NA beer has a knack for dominating headlines, industry discussions, and media coverage, despite making up only about 1%+ of total beer sales. This disproportionate attention is partly due to its impressive growth rates, made possible by its small base, and the ongoing speculation about its future potential. As the category continues to expand, those eye-popping growth percentages that earn new chain placements and expand the NA shelf will become harder and harder to maintain. Fortunately, there are still plenty of forces at play that will enable the category’s rise well into 2025.

One key driver is the launch of new formats to existing brands, which have opened up fresh retail channels. Secondly, major craft breweries in the U.S. are still getting in on the action by launching NA brands spun off their best-selling beers. These innovations will likely keep the growth engine humming, thanks to all the new distribution flowing through the pipeline. Earning these NA placements and getting the beer onto store shelves is half the battle. The real test will come over the next couple years as the pipeline gets full and we begin to find out just how well these products actually pull-through without expanded distribution to lean on.

Now, let’s peer into the present and the future with Nostradouglas, who only talks in the 3rd person while making a prediction. He’ll offer his observations, insights, and predictions that could change the way you see the world of non-alcoholic beer.

Key: 🔎 = Observation, 🔮= Prediction

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🔎 Owning Dry January

2025 has been the year where non-alcoholic brands continue to use Dry January as their key recruitment window, while beginning to riff on the term, or even distance themselves from it. Athletic Brewing is the perfect example, plastering over the word DRY in favor of their own brand name, ATHLETIC in an attempt to more so own the month.

Chicago’s Hopewell Brewing is winding down their first year in the THC beverage space with Choom, referring to their first resolution-themed campaign as High January. Brands are putting their own creative spin on the month in part because they know that despite there still being opportunity with New Years resolutions, Dry January is becoming shark infested waters and its necessary to stand out.

🔮 “I’ll Have An Athletic”

With Athletic Brewing’s head start and dominance in the category, Nostradouglas sees them building off “Athletic January” by launching a more evergreen campaign that flexes their position of strength all year long. The brand has the chance to become the Kleenex of Non-Alcoholic Craft Beer, by becoming synonymous with the entire category. Okay, maybe Coke would have been a better example. The crystal balls shows ad campaigns where people are in situations where there is no menu, ordering under the assumption that Athletic would be naturally be an option, because why wouldn’t it be?

“I’ll have an Athletic.”

No need to spend millions of dollars on agency fees, the first one from Nostradouglas is free.

🔎 Investment Against Stereotypes

While Athletic is the US leader of “craft” NA, Heineken has made the biggest ad spends thus far in the non-alcoholic beer category overall. Last year they partnered with beloved actor Paul Rudd, featuring his Marvel Ant-Man character in a spot called “No Shrinking and Drinking” during the S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶B̶o̶w̶l̶ Big Game. In 2025, Heineken continues to stretch outside the month of January, attacking the broader stereotypes that often surround NA drinkers, including calories:

…and being the designated driver:

🔎 Alternatively, Leaning In

While Heineken is fighting against the designated driver stereotype, Oskar Blues launched their first NA beer into the Dale’s series over the Summer, leaning right into the occasion, calling it Designated Dales. I don’t mind the name at all, its just interesting to see these two brands go in opposite directions with the perception.

🔎 Aspirational

While some NA brands attack hangovers and the way alcohol can make you feel, you’re less likely to see that approach from breweries built on selling alcoholic beer. For example, Firestone Walker has officially introduced 8Zero5, a non-alcoholic Blonde Ale into their 805 family. Utilizing Authenticos, their brand ambassadors from the Central Coast, they’re focusing around the “zero limits” involved with NA beer by tying it to individuals known for pushing boundaries.

🔮 Cervezna

Back in 2024, I wrote about the 805’s launch into the NA Beer category, wondering how they’d handle future portfolio expansion opportunities posed by the limiting factor of their black & white aesthetic. With 805 Blonde being black, Cerveza being white, and now 8Zero5 being gray, what could a 4th brand look like? Would they introduce color? A pattern? Different shades of gray/silver? It doesn’t matter right now, but while Nostradouglas was revisiting this topic, he realized that an amazing/terrible pun was sitting out there in the open that nobody has yet claimed. In an effort to combine the popularity of Mexican-style lagers, the non-alcoholic movement, and the openness to brewing stateside with all this tariff fear, a US brewery will launch a brand called CervezNA. 🤦🏻‍♂️

🔎 Local Start-ups Get More Specific

Plenty of small start-up brands have come into the non-alcoholic beer space in the last few years with their own unique point of view. Without the aspirations to the scale of Athletic and Heineken 0.0, who have celebrity names behind the brand, smaller companies are able to get more specific with their messaging. Two examples coming out of Chicago more recently areYears andVisitor .

Years was founded by Chance the Rapper’s former manager Pat Corcoranis. Featuring a Pilsner and a Pale Ale, both of which I tasted this week and I thought were pretty dang impressive, their production is handled by Pilot Project Brewing. Specific messaging or mission is hard to come by on their website or social media, but the tagline is “It’s not the years in your life - it’s the life in your years” taking a more serious tone around the non-alcoholic lifestyle opportunity.

Conversely, Visitor was founded in Chicago as well by Rob Jensen and David Gallagher, both formerly of Pitchfork / Condé Nast, who run their own marketing agency DBA.Partners. Along with their minimalist design, the messaging goes more so after those seeking moderation, not necessarily an alcohol-free lifestyle: “We started Visitor to create a bit of balance for anyone who's seeking it. So that you can enjoy the ritual without feeling full or tired. So that you can keep the hang going without sacrifice. And so you can share in the moment regardless of what you are—or aren't—drinking.” They’ve even created a beverage called a BoilerFaker that combines their non-alcoholic beer with alcoholic Four Roses Bourbon, along with other recipes.

🔎 Heck Focuses on “the What”?

Heck Brewing out of the Pacific Northwest is new on the scene as of 2024 and leans more into quality and craftsmanship, versus marketing specific occasions thus far in their early existence. That feels very on brand for the PNW craft scene, which I appreciate. I was introduced to this brand by a long time supporter of my content named Eric Steem, who is working with them through his agency Forest Green. They do use the brand names Silver Linings and Gentle Persuasion to make a bit of a statement, but ultimately let the liquid do the talking thus far in the messaging I’ve come across.

🔎 & 🔮 Spiderman Will Meet His Venom

The beer world was caught off guard when Spiderman actor Tom Holland unveiled his own non-alcoholic line of beers called BERO, lining up with his own NA lifestyle. I think the packaging looks really nice and I dig the premium-looking gold cans, but am really having a tough time with the name. Every industry voice I’ve heard discuss the brand has made reference to it’s meaning being BEER + ZERO, which makes total sense.

As someone who manages a line of HERO IPAs, fixated on the the fact that Spiderman has his own beer brand, I immediately thought BEER + HERO, given the famous character that Holland has now played six times. I’m guessing that is wrong, unless its both, but nonetheless that’s what I thought first. For me, it’s a hard word to say proudly. Do you prounounce it BEER-O (Heroesque) or BEAR-O? (Zeroesque)? Neither rolls off the tongue very well.

Given the amount of marketing spend that it will take to build a national NA beer brand, having a celebrity with a large audience on social media as the face of the project is a solid start to a strategy. As a result, Nostradouglas predicts that Mr Holland will have company as another big celebrity will launch a Non-Alcoholic beer brand in 2025 as well.

🔎 & 🔮 Variety Pack Time

In an emerging space like NA, especially on the craft trail that Athletic has blazed, there’s few better tools out there to increase adoption than a variety pack. Allowing customers to sample four different styles gives the the ability to discover what they like best or tastes most authentic, while selling 2x the volume of a standard six-pack.

Speaking of trails, Sierra Nevada came out swinging with a well-rounded mixed pack of Trail Pass styles including an IPA, Hazy IPA, Golden Ale, and Mexican-Style Lager. CervezNA was right there and they missed it! Brewdog USA has been at the NA Variety pack for quite a few years as well, perhaps first to do it right, regularly switching up their combinations and piloting new recipes.

Just a few years in, fast moving Go Brewing out of Naperville, IL launched 24-pack variety packs in all Illinois Costcos heading into the New Year, coming to consumers at a pretty great price too.

Nostradouglas is without a good explanation for why Athletic Brewing doesn’t have variety packs on store shelves yet at their scale, except perhaps capacity constraints, but says that 2025 is the year that changes in a big way. Perhaps its because they were busy launching…

🔎 19.2 Cans 😳

In a move that I did not see coming, Athletic launched 19.2oz cans in late 2024. The format opens up a significant amount of new distribution opportunities if the supporting occasions can fit the bill. I am extremely curious how these do because while I completely understand the venue play, with concerts and sporting events, I’ve struggled to wrap my head around enough buyers of single serve cans in convenience stores, but happy to be proven wrong as a lover of the format.

🔮 Screw it, Bottles

Nostradouglas says that a well-funded NA Craft Beer start-up will launch in 2025 with 6-pack bottles, instead of cans, as a way of differentiating and premiumizing over the competition. There might be gold foil involved, but he wouldn’t confirm for certain.

🔎 & 🔮 THC-Infused, Non-Alcoholic, Gluten-Free Beer

In case you missed last week’s post about Easy Man and its unique positioning as a Delta-9 THC-Infused “brew”, the part I didn’t spend enough, or any, time on is the gluten-free part. There’s few questions I’m asked more than if I can recommend any good gluten-free beers, which I never have a confident response to. THC-infused brews have the opportunity to simulate the beer occasion, while joining the biggest hype trend of the moment and providing those who normally have to abstain from beer with an option containing a different form of buzz. Many have dabbled in this space, but Easy Man and Triple Switch Brewing seem to be the ones building entire brands around it so far. More on the way? Nostradouglas thinks, definitely.

The Future of NA Beer 🔮

Non-alcoholic beer is here to stay, but the questions loom around how big it can get, and thus how much opportunity there truly is for all the new entrants to the space. The occasions and their acceptance will still need continued investment behind creative marketing in order to further break through culturally, which often comes at a steep cost that eventually has to be paid back.

Between new formats, new retail outlets, and celebrity endorsements, there’s scenarios where NA Beer just continues to grow. That could happen over the next decade+ in reasonable increments, climbing to 2.0%, then 2.3%, then 2.5% and so on, of total beer sales over time. The headwind that Nostradouglas has his eyes on though, which could disrupt this steady rise, is this continuing acceptance and adoption of Delta-9 THC beverages.

If the rhetoric around THC continues to trend positively as a better alternative to alcohol, is the buzz and functionality, aided by other enhancements like CBD, Lion’s Mane, L-Theanine, Ashwagandha, Nootropics, etc., going to rain on NA Beer’s parade? Or will the regulatory environment thwart Delta-9’s progress clearing the runway for the NA Beer lifestyle? Nostradouglas says that, like sports betting, THC will take a page out of Thanos’ book:

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Thanks for reading this marathon of a post. Coming up next from Nostradouglas, he will jump over to alcoholic beer, with a new theme for 2025.